Here is the link to the video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USPVHkNB4_M
Ramesh Damani asks where the market is exactly because first it was in bear market and then market rose 20% (technically bull market).
Manish Chokhani says that as this kind of crisis is not seen in the past it is difficult to say what’s going on as the resources are there all safe. About covid19 he believes that a vaccine will be created in the upcoming 12 months so what happens in these 12 months will decide how our country will come out of it.
NASDAQ is nearly 3% away from its all time high. Dow rallied more than 20% from the bottom.
What caused those markets to rise and emerging markets to some more follow them?
Manish tells about the game played by west – a game of printing more money and injecting it in economy to save itself from being bankrupt. He talks about global debt which is impossible to pay without injecting money into economy as the amounts are so huge. But this money ends up in financial markets. Also he said that theoretically US, Japan, Europe are bankrupt. But credit rating agencies don’t remove their ratings and put down countries like India. He assumes that this story will change in upcoming 12 months.
The bull market is there in west but it is technical and not real. Things will change because they have overused their brand power.
As the interest rates and oil are at record lows and China is no longer world’s friend. Isn’t this a good time for India to rise?
Manish Chokhani believes that coming 3 months will decide India’s emergence – either as an emerging market or making it into the big boy’s league. India has already missed its chance in 2008 where it was not able to understand the game but China did and they showed a tremendous growth. Also he talks about currencies of country ahead of India (in terms of GDP) that how they print money and keep their currencies pegged very close to each other. But this time game is not in favour of China as the voices from different countries are against China. He believes that if correct steps are taken then India will become a natural beneficiary. By increasing purchasing power of our people, allowing industry to get more competitive and working with government to ease the ease of doing business in India, India can become glorious just like 1991.
Will this crisis force India to change in so many ways?
As many companies have started slashing salaries of its employees and also started layoff people a different response is required this time. If the response doesn’t come this time India will face depression. Due to Bull Run of 2000’s decade everyone thought there will be consumption boom but most sectors even failed to double. Also the consumer debt is approaching nearly 20% of GDP. Supernormal profits need to be earned by keeping interest rates low and currency high.
India plays the game with the old colonial mindset while other countries play economic game.
On asking how to make a portfolio during such times of pandemic Manish Chokhani tells that after every crisis innovative companies emerge. Companies which think branding, margin and scale are companies that come out of crisis very well.
The Fundamental Mindset 